Popyt na ropę spadnie po raz pierwszy od dekady, kiedy koronawirus zbiera żniwo

Popyt na ropę spadnie po raz pierwszy od dekady, kiedy koronawirus zbiera żniwo



Globalny popyt na olej ma się spodziewać pierwszego skurczu przez ponad dekadę w pierwszym kwartale roku dzięki wpływowi koronawirus, zgodnie z Międzynarodową Agencją Energii.

Konsekwencje wirusa, obecnie oficjalnie nazywanego Covid-19, dla globalnego popytu na ropę będą „znaczące”, powiedziała IEA w swoim miesięcznym raporcie w piątek, prognozując, że popyt skurczy się o 435,000 baryłek dziennie (b / d) do 98,8 mln b / d.

Byłby to pierwszy spadek od jesieni 2009 r., Kiedy świat znalazł się w recesji światowej. „Globalny popyt na ropę został mocno dotknięty przez Covid-19 i powszechne zamknięcie chińskiej gospodarki”, powiedziała IEA.


W odniesieniu do 2020 r. MAE, która jest międzyrządowym wąskim zbiornikiem krajów OECD, obniżyła prognozę globalnego popytu na wzrost o 365 000 b / d do 825 000 b / d, najniższy roczny wzrost od 2011 r.

Obniżył również swoje prognozy na drugi kwartał roku o około 345 000 b / d, ale uważa, że ​​popyt powróci do trendu w trzecim kwartale.

A driving factor is the impact on air transport within and from China, the epicentre of Covid-19.  The ministry of transport data showed that in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, which started on 10 January, civil aviation transported 14.4 per cent fewer passengers on average than last year with a trough of a 74.5 per cent hit on 28 January.

By applying the impact on demand for fuel in the wake of the SARS outbreak in 2003, the IEA has cut its forecast for Chinese jet fuel demand by 125,000 b/d in the current quarter and 140,000 b/d in the three months to June.

Oil demand will also be reduced by lower economic activity. The decision to put the city of Wuhan, which is at a crossroads of cross-country links into quarantine, will curb fuel demand.

Several economic centres, including Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Chongqing, have extended holidays by at least two weeks and many migrants are waiting for an end to the epidemic before returning to work.

Chinese tourists are the most numerous in the world and countries with large numbers of visitors will be particularly impacted, affecting both air travel and tourism activities.

However, the IEA warned that it was difficult to make estimates as China’s role in the global economy had increased substantially in the 17 years since SARS.

“Today, it is central to global supply chains and there has been an enormous increase in travel to and from the country, thus heightening the risk of the virus spreading,” the IEA said.

“In 2003, China’s oil demand was 5.7 million b/d and by 2019 it had more than doubled to 13.7 million b/d — 14% of the global total. Moreover, last year China accounted for more than three-quarters of global oil demand growth.”

Meanwhile stock markets suffered a fresh fall after the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in mainland China rose to 1,367 as of the end of Wednesday, up 254 from the previous day. This dented hopes that the virus had peaked.

The Stoxx 600 index of EU-listed companies and the FTSE-100 both lost ground while the euro fell to a 33-month low of $1.086 against the US dollar.

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